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US markets were flat again overnight as the S&P500 continues to consolidate just below all-time high resistance levels. Investors in the US will likely remain on the sidelines until either the CPI reading tonight or the FED next week.
Many are hoping to see the FED next week give some indication of when they will be tapering. At some point though we will need to face the reality that Central banks will need to taper Bond Buying. Some countries are already starting to taper like England. The FED is trying to avoid a taper tantrum like we saw a few months back where Bond markets saw strong selling seeing yields jump rapidly. It seems that the FED is already starting to try and prepare markets with many FED officials voicing their view that it is time to start considering tapering. The key piece of detail will be how much they will taper and how quickly vs how strong economic data is. It is likely the FED will begin discussions on this next week, but a decision and announcement will likely be months away.
The goal is to slowly normalise monetary policy away from the emergency measures adopted over the last 18 months since Covid-19. Markets will want to see this happen in a way that continues to see healthy economic growth. Inflation is good for asset prices, so if the central banks can achieve and maintain their targets of 2-3% inflation whilst removing QE and increasing rates, markets will likely hold gains.
Short term –The XJO looks set to open slightly below 7300 today. Now we are into Blue Skies there is no way of knowing how far they will push it before finding the next resistance. 7,300 seems like a good target which is holding for now.
Medium term to long term-Markets have everything they could want: Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus from the US, extremely accommodative central banks, and the reinsurance that rates will stay low for a long time. It is a fine balancing act, between Vaccines and Covid cases, as well as stimulus vs the fears of inflation. It seems that the inflation fears have died out a bit for now, but keep an eye on CPI this week and the FED next week.
Long term to long term-As a vaccine becomes more prevalent and more economic activity opens, we would expect this to positively influence share prices; we, therefore expect shares to in general continue higher for the medium to longer-term. However, should we see central banks taper bond buying or lift their interest rates, we would expect to see a period of profit-taking and perhaps a correction.
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The XJO is expected to edge lower on open this morning following negative leads from the U.S last night. U.S futures sit in the green this morning and our market will be watching them closely throughout our session today to see how they continue to digest last night’s CPI data.
We are tracking sideward at the top of the range – a well-deserved rest from the recent bull run. Yesterday we once again made fresh intraday all-time highs, but were unable to hold our nerve and sold off by close. The recent consolidation range seems to be finding support at roughly 7260 and the accelerated uptrend line remains in play. This should help keep our market buoyed but if the U.S falls on the back of the new CPI data then 7200 is the next target.
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US shares closed slightly lower overnight in a quite session of trading ahead of tonight’s CPI/inflation data. There was little in the way of fresh economic data overnight, though an oil inventory report did show a greater drawdown in US oil inventories than expected; this wasn’t enough to push oil higher however. Seven of the eleven sector groups on the S&P 500 closed lower, with Financials stocks faring the worst, whilst Utilities and Healthcare stocks were the strongest performers overnight.
Technically, the S&P 500 is tracking sideways just below the all-time high resistance around 4,240. Overnight, the index did close lower, but didn’t break out of its sideways range from the past fortnight. The index remains up trending in the longer term, so we would expect a test and potentially a break of the 4,240 all-time high resistance level in the coming period, though the market may wait for Thursday’s inflation data before deciding whether to make this move. Should the index fall from here, the next key support level to the downside is the 4,125 level, which is shortly followed by the longer-term uptrend line; if that trend breaks, we could see a move back to 4,000.
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Chinese stocks ended higher yesterday, driven by coal and resource firms, as investors lapped up data that showed factory-gate prices in May saw their fastest annual pace in more than 12 years, implying signs of steady global economic recovery. At the close, the Shanghai Composite index was up 0.32 percent at 3,591.40, and the blue-chip CSI300 index was up 0.08 percent.
Japanese equities closed lower on Wednesday, on profit-booking in shippers and semiconductor stocks, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data as it could influence how soon the Federal Reserve pares its stimulus program. The Nikkei225 share average ended 0.35 percent lower at 28,860.80, while the broader Topix index was down 0.28 percent at 1,957.14.
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It was a mixed bag for commodities overnight, with prices remaining elevated overall. Oil prices fell slightly, with US WTI crude dropping back below the key $70 USD/barrel level. Gold and precious metals drifted slightly lower with US dollar strength. Base metals were mixed, iron roe continued strongly higher, with iron ore trading well above the $US200/tonne level, while copper and aluminium closed fairly flat.
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The Australian dollar drifted lower against the US dollar again overnight, with general US dollar strength. The US dollar index pushed higher overnight, though movements were fairly small. Bitcoin led a rebound in cryptocurrencies after El Salvador announced they would accept it as legal tender.
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Australian government bond yields dropped overnight, with the entire yield curve shifting lower. US government bond yields closed fairly flat overnight, with only small movements across the yield curve. Tonight’s US inflation read will be a big test for government bond yields.
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]]>Boral today issued a response to the off-market takeover bid by Seven Group Holdings. Boral’s independent board committee unanimously recommends to shareholders that they reject the Seven Group offer, as it ‘materially undervalues’ their boral shares. Boral shareholders who reject the offer should take no action.
PointsBet today announced that they have entered into an agreement with Riverboat Group to provide online and retail sports wagering in the state of Maryland, subject to the necessary regulatory approvals and licensure. The initial agreement term is 10 years, with PointsBet to pay to the Riverboat Group online and retail sportsbook market access fees as well as a portion of the Net Gaming Revenues.
The ACCC will not oppose Woolworths’ acquisition of 65 percent of the shares in wholesale food distributor PFD Food Services, following a detailed investigation that found the transaction is not likely to substantially lessen competition.
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US markets were flat again overnight as the S&P500 continues to consolidate just below all-time high resistance levels. Crude broke above the $70 US level for the first time since 2018. Iron Ore also pushed higher overnight retracing a sell down earlier in the week.
Investors in the US will likely remain on the sidelines until either the CPI reading tomorrow or the FED next week. At some point though we will need to face the reality that Central banks will need to taper Bond Buying at some point. Some countries are already starting to taper like England. The FED is trying to avoid a taper tantrum like we saw a few months back where Bond markets saw strong selling seeing yields jump rapidly. It seems that the FED is already starting to try and prepare markets with many FED officials voicing their view that it is time to start considering tapering. The key piece of detail will be how much they will taper and how quickly vs how strong economic data is. It is likely the FED will begin discussions on this next week, but a decision and announcement will likely be months away.
The goal is to slowly normalise monetary policy away from the emergency measures adopted over the last 18 months since Covid 19. Markets will want to see this happen in a way that continues to see healthy economic growth. Inflation is good for asset prices, so if the central banks can achieve and maintain their targets of 2-3% inflation whilst removing QE and increasing rates, markets will likely hold gains.
Locally in the short term, our market continues to push into all-time highs and hold gains, even though the US has not. A combination of extremely accommodative central banks and strong economic data showing the recovery is well on its way has investors refocused in Australia. Iron Ore rebounding above $200 US a tonne is also helping.
Short term –The XJO looks set to open slightly above 7300 today. Now we are into Blue Skies there is no way of knowing how far they will push it before finding the next resistance. 7,300 seems like a good target which is holding for now.
Medium term to long term-Markets have everything they could want: Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus from the US, extremely accommodative central banks, and the reinsurance that rates will stay low for a long time. It is a fine balancing act, between Vaccines and Covid cases, as well as stimulus vs the fears of inflation. It seems that the inflation fears have died out a bit for now, but keep an eye on CPI this week and the FED next week.
Long term to long term-As a vaccine becomes more prevalent and more economic activity opens, we would expect this to positively influence share prices; we, therefore expect shares to in general continue higher for the medium to longer-term. However, should we see central banks taper bond buying or lift their interest rates, we would expect to see a period of profit-taking and perhaps a correction
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The XJO is expected to edge higher on open this morning following flat U.S trading last night and their slightly positive futures this morning.
The last couple of days show that our market has potentially run out of steam, but can we blame it after such a stella run? – especially considering the U.S virtually did nothing. We may continue to track sideward from here, likely setting new boundaries for consolidation. The bottom may turn out to be 7200, the previous all-time high. The market will need to break the short-term uptrend line in order to set it though. We will likely have to wait until Friday to find out as Thursday night the U.S has its CPI reading.
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US shares closed fairly flat overnight as they sit in a holding pattern just below their all-time highs. Prices are tracking sideways ahead of Thursday’s US inflation data, which could lead to the current state of monetary policy being reconsidered. Still, most are optimistic about the strength of the US economic recovery, which helped US oil prices to break above $70 USD/barrel overnight, for the first time since the pandemic began. In economic data, the US trade deficit was slightly smaller than expected in April, while there were also more job openings than expected. Consumer discretionary and Energy stocks were the strongest performers overnight, while Utilities fared the worst; most other sectors were fairly flat.
Technically, the S&P 500 has stalled below the all-time high resistance around 4,240 and this didn’t change overnight. The index remains up trending in the short and longer term, so we would expect a test and potentially a break of the 4,240 all-time high resistance level in the coming period, though the market may wait for Thursday’s inflation data before deciding whether to make this move. Should the index fall from here, the next key support level to the downside is the 4,125 level, which is shortly followed by the longer-term uptrend line; if that trend breaks, we could see a move back to 4,000.
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Chinese stocks fell on Tuesday, weighed down by consumer and liquor firms, as investors worried about lofty valuations and Sino-U.S. tensions. The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 0.9 percent to 5,232.12, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.5 percent to 3,580.11.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index ended lower on Tuesday, dragged down by losses in heavyweights, including Softbank Group, while a rally in drug-makers lifted the broader Topix index. The Nikkei inched down 0.2 percent to close at 28,963.56, while the Topix edged up 0.1 percent at 1,962.65.
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It was a mostly positive session for commodities overnight. Oil prices rose, with oil rising through the key $70 USD/barrel level for the first time in the post-pandemic era. Gold and precious metals ticked slightly lower, with gold fluctuating around the $1,900 USD/ounce level. Base metals were strong, with aluminium and iron ore rising, while copper held flat.
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The Australian dollar drifted lower against the US dollar overnight, with our dollar holding below the key levels of 78-78.2 US cents. Our dollar as weaker with general US dollar strength, as the US dollar index ticked higher overnight.
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Australian government bond yields are falling across the entirety of the yield curve, with the curve shifting lower. US government bond yields are also drifting lower, though movements were smaller across the US yield curve.
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]]>Ampol today advised that on the 8th of June, the Hon. Justice O’Callaghan handed down judgement in Chevron’s Federal Court Proceedings against Ampol. The court dismissed several of Chevron’s claims but found in Chevron’s favour to the limited extent that Ampol will be restricted from use of the ‘StarCard’ brand in some advertising.
Austal today announced that Austal USA has been awarded a $US44 million fixed-price, undefinitized contract modification for the design, procurement, production implementation and demonstration of autonomous capability on Expeditionary Fast Transport (EPF) 13, the future USNS Apalachicola.
Sandfire today announced that it has awarded the contract for open pit mining services of the T3 pit at its Motheo Copper Project in Botswana to African Mining Services, a division of Perenti Global Ltd. The contract has an estimated value of $US496 million, and it’s the single operational contract for the new Motheo Project, covering a period of 7 years and 3 months, with a provisional one-year extension. Sandfire states that mine development is expected to commence with receipt of the mining license, which they expect in the coming weeks, with mining scheduled to commence in early 2022, with first production in early 2023.
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Markets were mixed overnight, European markets were slightly higher with some markets breaking further into all-time highs. The Dow and S&P500 closed slightly lower as the NASDAQ edged higher. All in all, it was an uneventful night.
US markets may struggle to put on a gain until after Thursday when the CPI reading is realised. Then many will be looking for guidance from the FED which meets next week.
Investors around the world are going to have to face the reality that Central banks will need to taper Bond Buying at some point. Some countries are already starting to taper like England. The FED is trying to avoid a taper tantrum like we saw a few months back where Bond markets saw strong selling seeing yields jumped rapidly. It seems that the FED is already starting to try and prepare markets with many FED officials voicing their view that it is time to start considering tapering. The key piece of detail will be how much they will taper and how quickly,vs how strong economic data is. It is likely the FED will begin discussions on this next week, but a decision and announcement will likely be months away.
The goal is to slowly normalise monetary policy away from the emergency measures adopted over the last 18 months since Covid 19. Markets will want to see this happen in a way that continues to see healthy economic growth. Inflation is good for asset prices, so if the central banks can achieve and maintain their targets of 2-3% inflation whilst removing QE and increase rates markets will likely hold gains.
Locally in the short term, our market has pushed into all-time highs and held gains, even though the US has not. A combination of extremely accommodative central banks and strong economic data showing the recovery is well on its way has investors refocused in Australia. Iron Ore rebounding above $200 US a tonne is also helping.
Short term –The XJO looks set to open slightly below 7300 today. Now we are into Blue Skies there is no way of knowing how far they will push it before finding the next resistance. 7,300 seems like a good target which is holding for now.
Medium term to long term-Markets have everything they could want: Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus from the US, extremely accommodative central banks, and the reinsurance that rates will stay low for a long time. It is a fine balancing act, between Vaccines and Covid cases, as well as stimulus vs the fears of inflation. It seems that the inflation fears have died out a bit for now, with government bond yields (that had been rising with inflation expectations) seemingly peaking.
Long term to long term-As a vaccine becomes more prevalent and more economic activity opens, we would expect this to positively influence share prices; we, therefore expect shares to in general continue higher for the medium to longer-term. However, should we see central banks taper bond buying or lift their interest rates, we would expect to see a period of profit-taking and perhaps a correction
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The XJO is expected to open fairly flat this morning, following similar leads from the U.S last night. Yesterday our market had its typical Monday blues, though only falling after making fresh intraday highs. The accelerated uptrend line held, and this morning shows no indication of it breaking either.
U.S futures remain flat this morning and so our market may continue its bullishness until it gets bearish signals from overseas. Alternately it is reasonable to expect our market to track sideward at the top of the range if not retrace a bit as it waits for signals. We may be holding our breath for CPI data in the U.S on Thursday.
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US shares closed flat overnight, with little change across the major indices. This time it was tech stocks that performed best, with the tech heavy NASDAQ index the only of the ‘big 3’ indices to close higher. There was a tick up in US treasury yields as investors became nervous about Thursday’s inflation report; some in the market are worried that the record levels of stimulus will lead to runaway inflation, or at the very least, a scenario where the Federal Reserve tapers its bond purchases. Overnight, US consumer credit growth came in lower than expected, though it had little bearing on the markets’ closes. Real Estate and Communications stocks were the strongest performers overnight, while Materials, Financials, and Industrials fell the hardest.
Technically, the S&P 500 has stalled below the all-time high resistance around 4,240. The index remains up trending in the short and longer term, so we would expect a test and potentially a break of the 4,240 all-time high resistance level in the coming period, though the market may wait for Thursday’s inflation data before deciding whether to make this move. Should the index fall from here, the next key support level to the downside is the 4,125 level, which is shortly followed by the longer-term uptrend line; if that trend breaks, we could see a move back to 4,000.
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China’s major stock indexes closed mixed yesterday, as investors reacted to the nation’s latest trade data. The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 0.1 percent to 5,277.63, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.2 percent to 3,599.54. The yuan dipped against the dollar to just below a key threshold, weighed by rising corporate demand for the greenback ahead of several major central bank meetings.
Japanese shares closed higher on Monday after U.S. jobs data eased concerns over an early tapering from the Federal Reserve, but heavy profit-taking capped gains amid caution before U.S. inflation readings due later this week. The Nikkei 225 share average edged up 0.27 percent to close at 29,019.24, after rising as high as 1 percent to reach a nearly four-week high earlier in the session.
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It was a mostly negative session for commodities overnight. We saw oil prices tick lower after reaching fresh post-virus highs. Gold and precious metals were one bright spot, rising on concerns around the US inflation read later this week. Base metals were weak, with iron ore falling in China yesterday, while aluminium fell and copper was fairly flat.
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The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar overnight, but importantly held below the resistance around 78.2 US cents. The strength in our dollar came down to general US dollar weakness, with the US dollar index losing ground, likely as investors looked ahead to the inflation read on Thursday.
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Both US and Australian government bond yields are ticking higher this week, ahead of the US CPI read on Thursday. Plenty of investors are worried that inflation is getting too strong, so they are selling bonds in anticipation. There is a counter view however that inflation fears are overblown, and that short-term inflation is transitory.
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]]>Ansell today announced that they have appointed Neil Salmon as Managing Director and CEO, effective 1 September 2021. This follows the previously announced retirement of Magnus Nicolin. Mr Salmon has previously worked as Ansell’s CFO and was appointed President of Ansell’s Industrial GBU in 2019.
NAB today announced that Standard & Poor Global Ratings (S&P) has revised the outlook for NAB’s long-term issuer credit rating to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’. The change reflects S&Ps revised outlook on Australia’s AAA rating to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’ in line with the quicker and stronger economic recovery than previously expected.
National Storage (NSR) has today announced an upgrade to earnings guidance as well as a fully underwritten $325 million equity raising. NSR states they have had record occupancy of 86.7 percent across Australia and New Zealand and that they are upgrading earnings guidance from 8.1 – 8.5 cents per share to 8.5 – 8.6 cents per share. NSR states that they are raising money to reduce gearing and provide funding flexibility for acquisitions. The raising will be structures as a 1-for-6.27 non-renounceable entitlement offer at $2.00 per share, a 3.8% discount to the last traded price.
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